Like other “risk” assets, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) took hits for weeks before and then after the Fed decided to raise its interest rates by a sharper-than-declared 75 basis points in June.
The Fed’s tightening moves probably wouldn’t have halved BTC/USD’s prices in less than three months if other major central banks hadn’t introduced their own (aggressive) tightening programs.
Traders and investors are now pricing in a slowdown in global economic growth, if not recessions for the world’s major economies.
It also doesn’t help Bitcoin that major crypto firms and projects like Binance, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and the Terra blockchain did not react well to the fast capital outflow from the industry. Crypto investors were shookedth, yo.
BTC/USD: 1-hour
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-hour Chart
BTC/USD is now flirting with the $20,000 psychological handle after dropping from the $30,000 area last week. If the last two downswings are any clues, then BTC/USD could be stuck in a tight range before finding its next direction.
Remember that Fed Governor Powell just acknowledged the possibility of a recession for the world’s largest economy.
On the other hand, more crypto firms have adjusted to the loss of capital in the industry and are making moves to restore investors’ confidence.
Crypto exchange Binance.US, for example, is now allowing traders to spot trade Bitcoin without a fee. Meanwhile, crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried has “bailed out” BlockFi, a quasi-bank, and Voyager Digital, a digital asset brokerage, to help “navigate the market from a position of strength.”
These crypto-positive updates will help BTC/USD bulls once traders turn back to taking risks. A round of risk-taking could break Bitcoin’s current consolidation and push BTC/USD back up to the $30,000 previous consolidation zone.
But talks of the “R” word are just getting started. If recession speculations gain momentum, then risky bets like Bitcoin and crypto could extend their downtrends. BTC/USD could dip back to the $17,600, $16,250, or even the $13,000 areas of interest. Yikes!
Don’t forget to check out bitcoin’s pivot points.
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