Supercore PCE is a measure of inflation that focuses on the prices of core services excluding housing.

It is sometimes referred to as “sticky” inflation because these prices tend to be less volatile and more persistent than other categories of inflation.

Supercore PCE is considered an important inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve as it tries to gauge underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.

What is Supercore PCE?

“Supercore PCE” refers to a specific subset of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index that focuses on core services, excluding housing and energy services.

The term “supercore” is used to highlight a more refined measure of inflation that central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, may pay closer attention to because it captures persistent and underlying inflation trends in the economy.

Supercore PCE Example

Components of Supercore PCE:

  • Core Services: Includes categories such as healthcare, education, recreation services, and financial services.
  • Excludes Housing: Removes housing-related expenses (e.g., shelter and rent costs) which can be subject to significant price swings due to external factors like commodity price changes and policy interventions.

What’s the difference between PCE, Core PCE, and Supercore PCE?

  • PCE Price Index: A measure of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. It includes a wide range of expenses, such as goods and services consumed by households.
  • Core PCE: This measure strips out the volatile food and energy components from the PCE price index to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.
  • Supercore PCE: This further narrows the focus to core services excluding housing, aiming to capture the inflation trends in services that are less influenced by temporary supply shocks and more by persistent economic factors.

By excluding volatile sectors like housing and energy, supercore PCE aims to reflect the underlying inflation trends driven by factors such as wage growth and service-sector demand. 

For example, if the general PCE index shows high inflation, but the supercore PCE shows moderate inflation, it may indicate that the price increases are largely driven by volatile sectors like energy or housing. 

Conversely, if supercore PCE is rising steadily, it could signal underlying inflationary pressures in the broader economy that might require policy intervention.

Why is Supercore inflation important?

Supercore PCE accounts for a significant portion of core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This makes it a crucial component in understanding overall inflation trends.

Many of the services included in Supercore PCE are labor-intensive, such as healthcare, education, and personal services. This means that wage pressures in these sectors can directly translate into higher prices.

The persistence of Supercore PCE inflation also makes it more difficult for the Fed to achieve its inflation target. This could require tighter monetary policy for a longer period, which could have implications for economic growth and employment.

In summary, supercore PCE is a refined measure of inflation that helps policymakers understand underlying inflation trends more clearly by focusing on core services and excluding more volatile sectors.

This measure provides valuable insights into persistent inflationary pressures and helps guide monetary policy decisions.