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Is ether (ETH/USD) headed to $5,000 and beyond?! 😲

In a note to clients, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at crypto index fund manager Bitwise, predicts ether’s price will reach all-time highs above $5,000 due to spot Ethereum ETF inflows.

Hougan expects the first few weeks after the ETFs launch to be “choppy” for ether, but by year-end, he is confident that new highs will be reached.

Matt Hougan of Bitwise predicts that spot Ethereum ETF inflows will drive ether’s price to new highs

If you haven’t kept up with Ethereum news, the SEC in the United States approved eight spot Ethereum ETFs from various issuers.  The approval is seen as a huge milestone for the crypto industry as it provides investors with a new way to gain exposure to Ethereum.

Hougan thinks that spot Ethereum ETFs will attract $15 billion of net inflows in their first 18 months. Such significant inflows would push the price of ETH/USD to new all-time highs. And if flows are stronger than many market commentators expect, the price could be much higher still.

If you’re new to Ethereum and crypto, check out our  School of Crypto.

Sounds bullish. But what about the technicals?

Welcome to TA of the Day (TAOTD)! 👋

Here’s the daily chart:

The chart displays the price action of ether (ETH) against the US Dollar (USD) on the Coinbase exchange from the start of 2024 until July 18, 2024.

📈 Technical Analysis of ETH/USD 1-Day Chart

Using technical analysis concepts covered in our forex course, let’s analyze ETH/USD.

Moving Averages:

SMAs:

  • 10-period SMA: Positioned around 3,254.98. The price is currently above this level, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The slope is upward, suggesting short-term strength.
  • 50-period SMA: Positioned around 3,445.13. The price is slightly below this level, indicating that the recent uptrend may be facing resistance. The slope is downward, suggesting medium-term weakness.
  • 200-period SMA: Positioned around 3,152.08. The price is above this level, indicating long-term bullish momentum. The slope is upward, suggesting sustained long-term bullishness.

If you’re new to moving averages, read our School of Pipsology lessons on how to use moving averages.

Relative Positioning of Moving Averages:

  • The 10-period SMA is currently below the 50-period SMA, indicating that the short-term trend had been weaker than the medium-term trend until recently. The recent price movement above the 10-period SMA suggests potential short-term bullishness.
  • The 50-period SMA is above the 200-period SMA, indicating that the medium-term trend is more bullish than the long-term trend. However, the price currently being below the 50-period SMA suggests a potential medium-term resistance.
  • The 10-period SMA is above the 200-period SMA, reinforcing the overall long-term bullish trend.

If you’re new to moving average crossovers, read our School of Pipsology lessons on moving average crossovers.

MACD:

  • MACD Line: The line is rising, indicating bullish momentum.
  • Signal Line: The line is rising, indicating bullish momentum.
  • Histogram: The histogram is positive, suggesting bullish momentum, but it appears to be decreasing, indicating potential weakening of the current bullish trend.

If you’re new to MACD, read our School of Pipsology lessons on how to use the MACD indicator.

Volume Analysis:

  • Volume Trend: Volume has been relatively stable with occasional spikes. Recently, there was a spike in volume during the price increase, indicating strong buying interest.
  • Volume and Price Correlation: The recent increase in price accompanied by increasing volume suggests that the upward movement is supported by strong buying interest. Conversely, the price declines have been on lower volume, indicating less selling pressure.

🕵️ Key Observations

Price Action:

  • Uptrend: The price has been in an uptrend since late January, characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
  • Correction: Recently, the price corrected from its peak of around 3,800 and is currently attempting to resume the uptrend.

Support and Resistance Levels:

  • Support:
    • Immediate support is around 3,255, which aligns with the 10 SMA and recent low.
    • 3,150 (horizontal level, coinciding with the 200 SMA)
    • 2,800 (horizontal level, previous swing low)
  • Resistance:
    • Immediate resistance is around 3,445, which aligns with the 50 SMA and recent high.
    • 3,500 (horizontal level, previous swing high)

If you’re new to support and resistance, read our School of Pipsology lessons on how to use support and resistance levels.

Moving Averages:

  • The 10 SMA is currently acting as support.
  • The 5 0 SMA was acting as resistance during May and June but was briefly breached in early July. The price failed to hold above the 50 SMA and is now back below it acting as resistance.
  • Price action in early July tested the 200 SMA as support, suggesting a potential weakening of the long-term bullish momentum.

If you’re new to moving averages acting as support and resistance, read our School of Pipsology lesson,  How to Use Moving Averages as Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels.

MACD:

  • The MACD is currently above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. However, the decreasing histogram suggests that the bullish momentum might be weakening.

🤔 Potential Trade Scenarios

Is ETH/USD a buy or sell?

The following trade scenarios are provided solely for educational purposes. Since they don’t include full risk management practices, they are not intended to serve as actual trade recommendations, but merely food for thought to help you generate your own trade idea.

Long Bias:

  • Consideration Point: Consider entering a long position if the price finds support near 3,255 and shows signs of a bounce, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a positive divergence. Additionally, a breakout above the resistance level at 3,445 with strong volume could indicate a continuation of the uptrend.
  • Invalidation Point: Consider setting a stop-loss below the support level of around 3,200 to manage risk.
  • Potential Target: Look for a move towards 3,600 and higher if the uptrend resumes.

Short Bias

  • Consideration Point: Consider entering a short position if the price fails to break above the resistance level at 3,445 and shows signs of bearish momentum, such as a strong bearish candlestick pattern or a negative divergence.
  • Invalidation Point: Consider setting a stop-loss above the recent high at 3,500 to manage risk. This level is crucial as a break above it would invalidate the bearish setup.
  • Potential Target: Initial target could be the support level around 3,255. If bearish momentum continues, look for further downside towards 3,000 or lower.

📝 TAOTD Summary

  • Trend: The long-term trend appears to be bullish, but the short-term trend shows some resistance around the 50 SMA.
  • Key Levels: Support at 3,255 and resistance at 3,445.
  • Momentum: The MACD indicates bullish momentum, but the decreasing histogram suggests that this momentum may be weakening.
  • Volume: Increasing volume during the recent price increase suggests strong buying pressure, while lower volume during price declines indicates less selling pressure.
  • Moving Averages Analysis:
    • The upward slope on the 10-period SMA indicates short-term bullish momentum, while the downward slope on the 50 SMA suggests medium-term resistance.
    • The upward slope on the 200 SMA reinforces the long-term bullish trend.
    • The relative positioning of the moving averages shows that while there is short-term and long-term bullishness, medium-term resistance may need to be overcome for further gains.

This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.